Rate of decline shipping decline eases but market conditions still testing.
The 3rd quarter shipping and port statistics published by the Irish Maritime Development Office indicates that rate and pace of the decline in shipping traffic volume continued to ease during the 3rd quarter of 2009. Despite this, the sector has recorded its 7th consecutive quarter of traffic volume decline.
Lift-on/lift-off (lo/lo) traffic fell by 20% in the third quarter to 268,357TEU which resulted in more than 50,000 fewer laden units being carried over this quarter compared to the same period in 2008. Two thirds of laden volumes were previously made up of imports, in particular from Asia. Lo/lo container volumes slumped over the past 18 months due to an abrupt correction in consumer demand and slowdown in the domestic construction sector. Seasonal factors related to Christmas demand resulted in a slight rise in imports, by 5% in September from August. Exports were up also up 22% month on month between September and August. These seasonal factors were absent in 2008 when volumes continued to fall at an accelerated rate of decline from the middle of the year. We forecast a total decline of 23% in lo/lo volumes to the year end.
Roll-on/roll-off (ro/ro) traffic, which is largely weighted towards shipping services to and from the UK, fell by 8% between July and September with 385,259 units being handled. On a monthly basis we observed the typical seasonal pattern with falls in volume during July and August followed by a rise in September. Volumes on the direct continental ro/ro routes increased by 64% to8,044 units in the third quarter of 2009. Overall in the ro/ro sector, 35,000 less freight units were carried on all routes when compared to same quarter in 2008, with a total of 152,000 units less for the first 9 months of the year.
Dry bulk volumes declined by 34% in quarter three 2009. The dry bulk markets have seen heavy volume erosion since the volume peaks recorded in mid 2007. Since this point there is now 4 million tons less of dry bulk cargoes being shipped through Irish Ports. However there has been some notable volume recovery during the period July to September. Improved global demand for alumina and ores has boosted volume throughput during the last quarter, this was also helped by modest domestic increases in agricultural fertilizers and grains. The breakbulk sector that is predominantly weighted in transport of construction related materials remained subdued with a further 45 per cent decline in volumes during the 3rd quarter. Tanker volumes declined by 22% in the third quarter 2009 when compared to the same period in 2008.
The main shipping routes have continued to make short run adjustments to the supply of shipping capacity in 2009 while there has also been some notable structural route consolidation in the market by some operators. We estimate that total available capacity has been reduced by a further 13% in the third quarter, which has been implemented by a reduction of frequency on certain routes and reduction in vessel sizes. Shipowners and operators will remain cautious of the inflationary impact of the upward trend of bunker fuel prices. The price of bunker fuel has doubled since the beginning of 2009 from $229 to over $460 per mt, with continued price increases likely.
While all market segments have not returned to the previous 30 month volume lows that were recorded earlier this year, the severe volume deterioration that has occurred over this period is likely to result in traffic volumes returning to pre 2003 levels by the end of this year. Depressed freight rates, lower volume demand coupled with increases in fuel and bunker costs will provide a challenging environment for shipping operators over the winter months. Underlying weaker domestic consumer demand is likely to continue to suppress import volumes while the strength of the euro against the dollar and sterling will continue to put pressure on export volumes to our key markets.
The PDF of the figures are available to download here.
Source: IMDO
